Why the USA must dominate quantum technology

An opportunity for asymmetric economic and military advantage

A deafening echo chamber

I was just re-watching the quantum panels at Nvidia’s GTC moderated by Jensen and was inspired by his vision when he asked “when will you all be a garden?”.

While it wasn’t the first time to have this many founders and CEOs of quantum vendors at a conference, it was a stunning reminder of how immature we are - each company pitching their modality as the best; and, just maybe, as the next Nvidia.

As Jensen suggested, we might want to stop planting seeds and finally build a garden. In this case, an American quantum garden to nourish and inspire a prosperous American future.

Quantum technologies — especially fault-tolerant quantum computing, quantum communications, and advanced sensing — carry the potential to rewrite the rules of economic competition and national security. In light of rising global investments (particularly from China), there’s an argument to be made that the U.S. needs a strategic, all-hands-on-deck effort reminiscent of the Manhattan Project or something in the spirit of “Stargate” — a bold, visionary initiative that marshals top talent and resources from across government, academia, and industry.

The Manhattan Project offers a compelling historical precedent for achieving rapid scientific advancement through concentrated effort, funding, and coordination. While the strategic stakes of quantum technology are similarly high, the field itself is broader and more complex. Quantum research spans computing, cryptography, materials science, and secure communications, with breakthroughs often emerging from global collaboration and academic openness. This contrasts with the secrecy and centralization that defined the atomic bomb effort. Therefore, while the ambition of the Manhattan Project is instructive, quantum’s nature demands a more flexible, open, and distributed approach. A revitalized “National Quantum Initiative 2.0” could serve as a blueprint — one that supports startups, fosters university-industry partnerships, and protects critical innovations without stifling the free flow of foundational knowledge.

The national security and economic stakes of quantum leadership are immense. A fault-tolerant quantum computer could break existing encryption standards, rendering current cybersecurity infrastructures vulnerable if developed first by an adversary. To counter this, the U.S. must lead in developing quantum-safe cryptographic protocols and secure communications networks. Economically, quantum computing is poised to enable entirely new industries and applications, driving innovation across sectors from pharmaceuticals to finance. Leading this transformation would reinforce U.S. technological dominance, create high-value domestic jobs, and set global standards. Just as DARPA helped launch the internet era, a well-funded, mission-driven quantum research agency could coordinate grand challenges, encourage competitive innovation, and catalyze game-changing discoveries.

Sustaining long-term leadership also requires deep investments in talent and infrastructure. The U.S. must scale up quantum education programs and STEM initiatives at all levels, while creating clear and attractive pathways for global scientific talent to contribute and stay. Establishing advanced quantum laboratories — akin to the National Labs system — would provide critical facilities for hardware prototyping, network testing, and researcher training. At the same time, the challenge of balancing openness with security looms large. While openness accelerates foundational science, the strategic implications of quantum breakthroughs necessitate protective mechanisms. Smart oversight and legislation can help define what remains open (e.g., error correction research) and what stays proprietary (e.g., cryptanalytic techniques). With a unifying vision — whether “Quantum Manhattan,” “Project StarQate,” or a reinvigorated national initiative — the U.S. can inspire public and private investment, galvanize the scientific community, and send a clear signal of its intent to shape the future of quantum technology.

A large-scale, government-coordinated — and well-funded — quantum initiative in the United States is needed to accelerate breakthroughs and help ensure that quantum’s most disruptive capabilities (breaking encryption, advanced military applications, and globally transformative commercial products) don’t land exclusively in an adversary’s hands. The model might not exactly replicate the wartime Manhattan Project’s secrecy, but a similarly decisive commitment — coupled with the best of public-private partnership — may be essential for the U.S. to lead the quantum era.

The economic opportunity

For quantum technology to deliver trillions of dollars in economic impact in the United States, it must move from its current research-oriented phase to breakthrough technology. That transition will demand comprehensive and coordinated efforts across multiple fronts that are out of reach of even the most self-confident vendor.

Scalable Hardware and Foundational R&D

• Accelerated Development of Fault-Tolerant Systems: Trillions in impact require stable, large-scale quantum computers that can tackle commercially valuable tasks. Without fault tolerance, the value remains speculative at best.

• Manufacturing and Supply Chains: Reliable supply of high-quality qubits, control electronics, cryogenic systems, and specialized materials is essential. Strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities avoids bottlenecks and dependencies on foreign suppliers.

Broad and Deep Talent Pipeline

• Workforce Education: Developing and retaining quantum engineers, software developers, researchers, and technicians requires expanded STEM programs, specialized quantum degrees, and accessible retraining for skilled workers.

• Immigration and Research Collaboration: A welcoming environment for global talent — through targeted visas, fellowships, and partnerships — helps ensure the U.S. remains the premier destination for quantum scientists and innovators.

Robust Public-Private Collaboration

• Incentives for Commercialization: Government-backed grants, tax incentives, and innovation challenges can de-risk quantum R&D for private firms. DARPA- or NSF-style initiatives aimed at mission-driven quantum goals would accelerate the path to real-world applications.

• Industry Consortia: Public-private consortia help standardize software interfaces, hardware protocols, and best practices — lowering barriers for businesses to integrate quantum solutions.

Supportive Regulatory and Policy Environment

• Intellectual Property Protection: Clear IP frameworks — plus robust cybersecurity measures — encourage businesses to invest heavily in quantum.

• Export Controls and Cyber Guidelines: As quantum tech is inherently dual-use, careful regulation is necessary to protect national security without stifling commercial innovation.

• Federal Procurement: Government adoption of quantum-based solutions (for scientific simulation, logistics optimization, cryptographic security, etc.) can provide early market validation.

Quantum-Ready Industries

• Focused Sectoral Initiatives: Industries that stand to benefit most — healthcare, pharmaceuticals, energy, logistics, finance — need hands-on pilot programs to translate quantum breakthroughs into enterprise workflows.

• Enterprise Adoption and ROI: Clearly demonstrated business cases will drive further investment. Big wins in a few early verticals can set off a cascade of adoption elsewhere.

Global Leadership and Standard-Setting

• International Collaboration: Co-leading (with allies) on international standards ensures U.S.-centric protocols become global defaults, strengthening domestic companies’ positions in worldwide markets.

• Quantum Diplomacy: Diplomatic efforts that foster stable quantum “ecosystems” (e.g., shared R&D networks, talent exchanges, open publication of foundational research) can help the U.S. remain at the forefront.

Long-Term Vision and Funding

• Manhattan-Project-Level Commitment: Consistent, large-scale public funding (potentially tens of billions of dollars annually) can accelerate timelines. Grand challenges — like building an error-corrected quantum system by a specific date — galvanize both public enthusiasm and private investment.

• Sustainable Commercial Models: Government seed funding is crucial early on, but lasting impact requires profitable quantum solutions that attract private capital. Trillions in value ultimately hinge on a thriving commercial ecosystem, not just grants or pilot programs.

The national security imperative

Leveraging quantum technologies could profoundly shape the United States’ military and defense capabilities over the coming decades, enabling faster, more secure communications, advanced intelligence operations, and new forms of strategic planning. While quantum tech alone won’t guarantee global military dominance, its integration — alongside AI, space assets, and cyber capabilities — can give a decisive edge.

Breakthroughs in Intelligence and Cryptanalysis

• Decryption of Adversary Communications: A large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer could theoretically break many classical encryption methods (e.g., RSA, ECC). Early access to this capability would grant a massive advantage in signals intelligence (SIGINT), allowing the U.S. to intercept and read adversaries’ secure communications.

• Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Integration: Just as important is securing one’s own channels. Rapid adoption of quantum-safe cryptographic standards would protect U.S. communications from adversaries who develop quantum decryption methods.

Advanced Battlefield Management and Simulations

• Real-Time Strategy Optimization: Quantum-accelerated algorithms can rapidly parse large datasets — satellite imagery, sensor input, troop movements — to propose optimal strategies. This agility could make U.S. forces more responsive and resilient in dynamic conflict environments.

• Logistics and Supply Chain Efficiency: Large-scale, complex logistics operations (e.g., moving fuel, equipment, and personnel globally) can be optimized via quantum tools for faster deployment and reduced downtime, enhancing both readiness and cost-effectiveness.

Ultra-Secure Quantum Communications

• Unbreakable Links: Quantum key distribution (QKD) provides theoretically unhackable encryption between parties. By integrating QKD into military communications (including satellite-based QKD), command-and-control networks can be made vastly more secure against adversarial interception.

• Multi-Node Quantum Networks: Long-term vision might include “quantum internet” nodes connecting bases, allies, and command centers. Such infrastructure could be a strategic game-changer if established at scale — well ahead of rival nations.

Quantum Sensing and Navigation

• High-Precision Sensors: Quantum-enhanced sensors can detect minute changes in gravity, magnetic fields, or electromagnetic signals — facilitating more accurate submarine tracking, stealth detection, or underground facility mapping.

• GPS-Independent Navigation: Quantum inertial sensors could allow aircraft, ships, and submarines to navigate precisely without relying on GPS, which is vulnerable to jamming or spoofing — improving operational security and reliability.

Rapid Materials Discovery and Weaponry Innovation

• New Alloys and Propulsion Systems: Quantum simulations can speed up the discovery of advanced materials for lighter, stronger armor, more efficient engines, or stealth coatings — shrinking R&D timelines from years to months.

• Energy Storage and Directed Energy: Research into quantum phenomena could yield breakthroughs in battery tech, enabling better energy storage for directed-energy weapons (lasers, railguns) or electrified platforms.

Force-Multiplying AI Integration

• Accelerated Training for AI Models: Quantum computing can potentially speed up AI training on large datasets, including surveillance or drone swarm coordination data. Faster AI iteration cycles can radically enhance automated decision-making.

• Synergy of AI and Quantum: AI can optimize or correct quantum computations in real time, while quantum hardware can boost certain AI tasks. This synergy might produce a self-reinforcing cycle of advanced decision support — vital in contested environments.

Strategic Deterrence and Defense Readiness

• Deterrence by Capability: Possession of quantum decryption powers and ultra-secure communications can deter adversaries by undermining their confidence in their own encryption and strategy.

• Preemptive Threat Detection: Quantum-enhanced analytics on global signals could identify emerging threats (e.g., ballistic launches, stealth assets) earlier than classical means, giving the U.S. a preemptive advantage.

Global Alliance Building and Influence

• Shared Quantum Networks with Allies: Extending quantum-secure communication infrastructures to NATO (starting with AUKUS) members and key partners can solidify alliances and coordinate collective defense — further amplifying U.S. leadership.

• Setting Standards and Protocols: Dominating quantum research and development allows the U.S. to define global best practices and technical standards, reinforcing a position of influence over international security and technology norms.

Quantum technology could underpin a next-generation U.S. military that is smarter, more resilient, and able to outmaneuver adversaries across conventional and cyber domains. The key lies in strategic, coordinated development — combining public investment, private innovation, and academic research — to push quantum from the lab bench into real-world defense systems. By proactively mastering fault-tolerant quantum computing, secure quantum communications, and cutting-edge sensors, the United States can build on its existing advantages and maintain a leading military posture in a rapidly changing global landscape.

The path to American quantum dominance

The United States must accelerate its leadership in quantum technology to dominate the global quantum value chain and future-proof national security. Core objectives include advancing domestic capabilities in quantum hardware manufacturing —such as cryogenic systems and quantum chips — and building advanced software stacks.

Federating US programs

This strategy must harness bipartisan support through an “America First” lens, positioning quantum investments as crucial for national competitiveness. Quantum-based technologies — communications, sensing, and computing — must be embedded within the Department of Defense (DoD), DARPA, and other federal roadmaps to safeguard strategic advantage. Additionally, securing supply chains and fostering domestic manufacturing will be vital to mitigate foreign dependency and shield critical national infrastructure.

Institutionally, the U.S. policy ecosystem already has significant assets in place. The National Quantum Coordination Office (NQCO), under the National Quantum Initiative Act (NQIA), leads federal efforts, working alongside the OSTP to guide interagency priorities and budgets. Key agencies like DoD, DOE, NSF, and intelligence entities (IARPA, NSA) are driving quantum R&D for defense, energy, and secure communications. Congress has laid legislative groundwork through the NQIA and CHIPS Act, and continued engagement with relevant committees is essential to expand funding and create new innovation vehicles. Private-sector actors — from Big Tech to defense contractors — are central to shaping standards and commercializing quantum tech, while think tanks and coalitions amplify policy influence.

To fully realize this agenda, the U.S. must launch a high-visibility “Quantum Moonshot” from the White House, backed by executive orders, milestone-driven investments, and a national communications strategy. This includes funding for manufacturing, national testbeds, and regional “Quantum Growth Zones” with tax incentives and regulatory support. Public-private partnerships (PPPs), demonstration projects, and talent initiatives will fuel innovation while building workforce capacity. The NQCO should be elevated to coordinate across sectors and borders, and a “Quantum Allies Pact” should unify R&D and supply chain efforts with partners like the UK, Canada, and Japan. Through bold, bipartisan action, the U.S. can secure long-term technological dominance and economic prosperity driven by quantum innovation.

Creating bipartisan awareness

To address the “awareness gap” on Capitol Hill and strengthen political momentum for quantum technology, a comprehensive education and engagement strategy must be prioritized. This includes forming a bipartisan Congressional Quantum Caucus modeled after successful technology-focused groups, and hosting regular briefings and “Quantum Boot Camps” for lawmakers and staffers. These sessions should deliver clear, visually engaging materials that tie quantum advancements to economic growth, national security, and localized benefits such as job creation. By contextualizing quantum policy within familiar narratives — like infrastructure protection, cybersecurity, and defense — stakeholders can demystify the technology and drive broader bipartisan buy-in.

Simultaneously, efforts must intensify at the regional level to ground federal quantum strategy in local success stories and workforce opportunities. Highlighting how quantum projects have already spurred jobs, partnerships, and innovation in specific districts or states will help build grassroots and constituent-driven political will. Strategies include leveraging regional labs and universities, aligning quantum with CHIPS Act–style initiatives, and supporting quantum-specific workforce development through apprenticeships, tax incentives, and curriculum updates. Long-term support for basic R&D is also essential — secured through multi-year authorizations, expanded quantum centers of excellence, and better funding bridges from lab research to commercial deployment.

Setting global standards

Finally, advancing innovation-friendly standards and international collaboration is vital. The U.S. should lead global coordination on quantum-safe encryption, promote regulatory sandboxes for federal pilots, and expand diplomatic and export-control frameworks with trusted allies. Quantum should be consistently framed as a unifying, forward-looking national priority, reinforced through regular congressional briefings, metrics dashboards, and bipartisan messaging. By cultivating champions across relevant committees, aligning quantum with national economic and security goals, and showcasing tangible progress through public-private partnerships, the U.S. can maintain momentum and steer quantum development toward strategic advantage in both global competitiveness and societal impact.

Quantum technology holds the promise of significantly enhancing U.S. prosperity and reinforcing global leadership, but it must be embedded within a broader innovation and policy framework.

However, quantum technology is not a standalone solution. Its success depends on complementary policies in trade, education, and infrastructure, as well as resilience against global competition and technological disruption. The U.S. must guard against complacency, particularly as other powers — like China and the EU — aggressively pursue quantum leadership. Additionally, the transformative nature of quantum could displace certain jobs and industries, making workforce retraining and economic adaptability crucial. Ultimately, quantum should be viewed as a strategic multiplier — not a magic bullet — whose full potential will only be realized through coordinated national efforts that align technology, policy, and inclusive economic development.

Happy World Quantum Day!
#QuantumIsComing

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This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.