Quantum Computing Commercialization
A new report in partnership with D-Wave explores the current state of the commercial quantum computing market
My musings have been spotty over the past few weeks, big things are in the works and - something to be grateful for - we are busy with a number of projects and engagements. No excuses, though, and expect to receive a couple more of my insights on quantum tech before year end.
One of those engagements was a super fun podcast recording for #ApplicationParanoia #AppParnoia by Colin Bell, Rob Cuddy and Kris Duer from HCL Software where we talked about all things quantum tech - we enjoyed recording it, hopefully you will enjoy listening to it.
We are also grateful to be working with SandboxAQ, helping them define the field of A.I. for Quantum Tech.
Combining AI with Quantum Technologies is emerging as a vital application of these advanced technologies, empowering us to envision business data and external stimuli in ways we never could contemplate before.
And therein you can play a helpful role. If making a meaningful contribution to define the field of AQ is interesting to you, then consider taking this three-minute survey.
Note all submissions are anonymous and your data will not be shared externally. Of course, all participants will receive a copy of the results if requested.
Quantum computing has entered the commercial era
This milestone is the result of a number of factors that range from technical progress to abundant financial resources. QC is now facing a whole new set of opportunities while emerging in the enterprise.
Writing this report would have been impossible as recently as two years ago, when total revenues in 2020 were estimated to be less than $250M and ~5% of came from commercial sources.
For 2022 we predict $750M in revenue for the sector. More than 20% of this revenue is expected to come from commercial customers, reflecting an increase from roughly $12.5M to over $150M attributed to business-oriented use cases and clients, rather than R&D partnerships. The commercialization of QC is truly a sea change.
QC on the Maturity Curve
Quantum computing is a scientific and engineering marvel. It was just 25 years ago that the first-ever attempt to build a device that might deliver a new computational paradigm was made. Since that time, an entire global ecosystem of vendors and startups has emerged with the stated goal of bringing quantum computing to market.
The speed at which quantum computing has developed is breathtaking. Based on a novel way of explaining how our world works, quantum physics has emerged as the widely accepted and deeply researched science underpinning this technological revolution.
Researchers and engineers quickly grasped the potential of using this science for a wide array of applications, including a new computational paradigm. Within 25 years, an entire industry was born and went from a bulky experiment to a new architecture that, at the writing of this report, is redefining what is possible with classical supercomputers.
Whereas at the beginning of 2020 two main architectures were commercially available (superconducting annealing QCs and gate-model superconducting QCs), today customers can choose from five available modalities by vendors from seven different countries.
When evaluated on computational performance and commercial progress, D-Wave is a leader in the industry, with 68% of its QCaaS (quantum computing as a service) revenue coming from commercial customers in 2021.
As of today, 63 of its customers are commercial in nature, which is the largest contingent of business users in the ecosystem.
With the rapid scientific and engineering rise of quantum computers, we are now in a good place to understand how to commercialize QC and help companies use it to drive business impact. The commercial impact can already be felt today, and the leaders in this new industry are starting to emerge.
In this report we propose a number of new frameworks to better assess and benchmark progress in the field.
Notably, we define specific target audience for the commercialization of quantum computing with all of their different requirements and goals.
We publish a new framework introducing the concept of "quantum business advantage."
Lastly, we share new data and predictions on the numbers of the commercial quantum computing market.
The numbers are clear, the commercial market is picking up steam and depth but from a very small space and still with unclear use cases. But, some very specific areas of near-term potential. You can access the report in the client portal directly.
If you are not reading the Quantum Computing Report then you don’t know what is happening in quantum tech.
The year end brings a lot of great quantum tech events, a new one on the scene that we are excited about is:
I will be on stage with Tony Uttley from Quantinuum, Christopher Savoie from Zapata Computing and Scott Farris from ColdQuanta - and look forward to seeing you in DC.
I hope you, too, have something to be grateful for this week and get to celebrate the start of the holiday season.
#QuantumIsComing
Much appreciated the the compliments!